WiseTech Global cuts 2,000 jobs. Atlassian cuts 1,600. CBA sheds hundreds more. The CEO of one of Australia's largest tech companies declares "the era of manually writing code as the core act of engineering is over."
If you write software for a living in Australia, those headlines are hard to ignore.
But here's the paradox: the same data that flags programmers as one of the highest AI-risk degree-level occupations in the country also rates them as being in national shortage. So what's actually going on?
4,450 Tech Jobs Gone in 10 Weeks
Australian tech firms have shed 4,450 positions in the first ten weeks of 2026 — more than five times the 874 cut across all of 2025. Sydney now ranks third globally for tech layoffs, behind only San Francisco and Seattle.
The biggest hits:
- WiseTech Global: 2,000 roles (30% of its workforce), with product, development, and customer service teams facing up to 50% reductions
- Atlassian: 1,600 positions (10% of its global workforce), including roughly 500 in Australia
- Commonwealth Bank: Around 300 roles, mostly in technology, alongside a $90 million Future Workforce Program to retrain staff
- Block (Afterpay's parent): 4,000 globally, with flow-on effects for its Sydney-based operations
WiseTech CEO Zubin Appoo put it bluntly: "Software development has experienced its most significant shift in decades."
Atlassian's Mike Cannon-Brookes was more measured: "It would be disingenuous to pretend AI doesn't change the mix of skills we need."
What the Data Shows
Our AI risk assessment rates software and applications programmers at 6.7 out of 10 for AI exposure. That makes it one of the highest-risk degree-level occupations in Australia — above ICT business and systems analysts (6.4), ICT support technicians (5.8), and database and systems administrators (5.5).
But that 6.7 comes with a big asterisk.
Jobs and Skills Australia rates software programmers as being in national shortage. There are 195,400 Australians employed in the role today, earning a median of $2,537 per week. Employment has grown 15.7% over the past five years, with projections pointing toward 215,000 by 2030.
A high AI risk score and a shortage rating might seem contradictory. It's not.
Automation vs Augmentation
The JSA GenAI Capacity Study breaks AI exposure into two parts:
- Automation exposure (tasks AI could do instead of you): 0.63 for programmers
- Augmentation exposure (tasks AI could help you do better): 0.77
That augmentation figure is the key. AI is not so much replacing programmers as it is changing what programming looks like. The 2026 developer spends less time writing boilerplate code and more time on architecture, system design, and directing AI tools toward the right problems.
WiseTech's restructure illustrates this. The company is not abandoning software development — it's moving to what it calls "AI agents coordinating work," where fewer engineers manage more output. The CBA is spending $90 million to retrain staff for what CEO Matt Comyn described as "higher-impact roles requiring greater expertise, judgement, critical thinking, and empathy."
The JSA study put it clearly: generative AI is likely to augment the way Australians work rather than replace jobs through automation.
How Other Tech Roles Compare
Programming is not the only tech occupation under pressure. Here's how the broader ICT sector looks:
| Occupation | AI Score | Employment | Shortage? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Software programmers | 6.7 | 195,400 | Yes |
| ICT business analysts | 6.4 | 51,500 | No |
| ICT support technicians | 5.8 | 74,000 | No |
| Database & systems admins | 5.5 | 72,300 | Yes |
| Web developers | 5.4 | 11,900 | No |
| ICT managers | 4.8 | 98,600 | No |
A pattern stands out: the more hands-on-keyboard the role, the higher the AI score. Managers and administrators who spend more time on judgement, stakeholder decisions, and strategic planning score lower. This matches what the layoff data shows — it's code-writing roles being restructured, not architecture and leadership positions.
What's Growing
While headlines focus on cuts, there is a different story playing out alongside them. LinkedIn's Jobs on the Rise 2026 report for Australia found that AI Engineer is the fastest-growing role in the country, and AI literacy is the single most in-demand skill.
Eight in ten company leaders now say they'd prefer to hire someone comfortable with AI tools over someone with more experience but less AI proficiency.
Across the ANZ region, 74% of organisations reported that introducing AI actually created new positions. And 92% of companies plan to hire in 2026.
The demand for people who understand software systems is not disappearing. It's shifting — from writing code line by line to orchestrating AI-assisted development.
What This Means for Australian Developers
The data paints a picture that's more complicated than "AI is coming for your job."
If you're a junior developer, the path is narrower than it was two years ago. Entry-level coding tasks — the ones graduates traditionally cut their teeth on — are exactly what AI tools handle best. Building a portfolio that shows system thinking, not just code output, matters more than it used to.
If you're mid-career, the restructures at WiseTech and Atlassian are a signal, not a death sentence. Both companies are hiring into new roles even as they cut old ones. Atlassian is spending up to $330 million on its restructure while simultaneously hiring in AI-adjacent functions. The developers who adapt to working with AI tools will likely see their productivity and value increase.
If you're experienced, this may work in your favour. As one analyst warned, the biggest risk is "leaders becoming arrogant enough to think experience is optional." AI can generate code, but it can't navigate ambiguous requirements, manage technical debt across complex systems, or make the judgement calls that come from years of building and breaking things.
Check Your Own Risk
Software and applications programmers sit in a rare position — high AI exposure, strong demand, and a profession in the middle of a rapid reshaping. The occupation is not disappearing, but the version of it that existed three years ago already has.
Curious where your job sits? Check your occupation's AI risk score at How Safe Am I?, or browse the full rankings to see how tech roles compare to the rest of the Australian workforce.